According to Milk Road, the business cycle has remained in a neutral phase for 30 months, indicating neither a bullish nor bearish macro environment. The source highlights that global financial conditions are easing as the US dollar and oil prices decline, which could typically support risk assets. However, Milk Road notes that continued US–China trade tensions are suppressing the ISM index, an important economic indicator. This persistent macro uncertainty is limiting upward momentum for crypto markets, and significant price action is unlikely until trade tensions subside (source: Milk Road via Twitter, May 4, 2025).