According to The Kobeissi Letter, institutional investors have significantly increased their bearish stance on the US Dollar, with asset managers' net short positions rising to $47 billion, close to the highest level since December 2023 (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 5, 2025). Short exposure has doubled in the last two months as the US Dollar's decline has accelerated. This surge in short positions indicates a strong expectation of further USD weakness, which is historically correlated with upward momentum in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto traders should monitor this trend closely, as weakening USD strength often drives capital flows into digital assets and may contribute to increased volatility and trading opportunities in the crypto market.

According to Milk Road, the business cycle has remained in a neutral phase for 30 months, indicating neither a bullish nor bearish macro environment. The source highlights that global financial conditions are easing as the US dollar and oil prices decline, which could typically support risk assets. However, Milk Road notes that continued US–China trade tensions are suppressing the ISM index, an important economic indicator. This persistent macro uncertainty is limiting upward momentum for crypto markets, and significant price action is unlikely until trade tensions subside (source: Milk Road via Twitter, May 4, 2025).